World Energy Production Scenarios


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About ... Global Energy Production Scenarios

Léo Benichou, TSP team

Story:

This graph compares different visions of energy futures, according to the original publications in which they were published. The idea of this graph came out while reading the great work from UKERC in Global Oil Depletion Report, we decided to make a scenario comparison for other energy sources.

I gathered data from different publications and applied dilatation factors that can be seen in the table under the graph. Thus the values displayed differ from original publications.

This dataset has to be taken for qualitative information. Anyways, usually, none of the authors of the scenarios displayed claim to predict the future with high accuracy. This claim would be like an oxymoron in itself...

 

Dilatation coefficients applied:

In order to smoothe the apearance of the graphs, and in particular to have all scenarios starting from the same point which is consistent with historical data, we decided to apply dilatation factors. The general method is illustrated in following sub part Data processing details

The table where I report dilatation factors looks like this (here for oil scenarios for example):

For Oil scenarios, BP statistical data remains unchanged, "pivot" years are: 1965 (for Etemad and Luciani) and 2007 (for scenarios)

For Gas scenarios, BP statistical data remains unchanged, "pivot" years are: 1985 (for Etemad and Luciani) and 2007 (for scenarios)

For Coal scenarios, BP statistical data remains unchanged, "pivot" years are: 1984 (for Etemad and Luciani) and 2007 (for scenarios)

For Wind scenarios, US EIA statistical data remains unchanged, "pivot" year is: 2008

Data processing details : Dilatation

This modification consists in multiplying all numbers of a given series by the same factor so that the values are made consistent with another statistical series for instance. The year at which the junction is made, or so called "pivot" year, is important because it determines the dilatation coefficient factor. The dilatation coefficients are detailed.

When data is redundant over a certain time frame, the pivot year is choosen in order to minimize the distance between fixed data and dilated data over the period.

Here is an explicit example of dilatation process:

Data Sources for historical statistics (Oil, Gas and Coal):

- Etemad & Luciani for the period 1900-1980, Bouda Etemad and Jean Luciani, World Energy Production 1800 – 1985, ISBN 2-600-56007-6, Data digitalized and published with agreement of B. Etemad

- BP statistical review 2008 and 2010 Download original 2008 Xls, Download original 2010 Xls

Data Sources for Oil production scenarios:

- Almost all oil scenarios come from UKERC, 2009, Global Oil Depletion Report, Published with the agreement of Jamie Speirs

- Shell 2008, Shell Energy scenarios to 2050

- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010, New Policies Scenario,

Data Sources for Gas production scenarios:

- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, Business as usual and 450ppm scenarios,

- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010, New Policies Scenario,

- Shell 2008, Shell Energy scenarios to 2050

- U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2010 , Reference Scenario

Data Sources for Coal production scenarios:

- International Energy Agency,World Energy Outlook 2009, Business as usual Scenario,

- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010, New Policies Scenario,

- Shell 2008, Shell Energy scenarios to 2050

- U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2010, Reference Scenario

- OPEC, World Oil Outlook 2009

- Energy Watch Group 2007, Coal: Resources and Future Production data published with the agreement of Werner Zittel.

Data Sources for Wind production scenarios:

- U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics for 1981-2009, Go to EIA database data accessed 15th of December 2010

- Global Wind Energy Council 2010, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010

- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010, New Policies Scenario,

- U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2010 , Reference Scenario

- Shell 2008, Shell Energy scenarios to 2050

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