KAYA Factors

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About ... Percentage Change in KAYA Factors

Zeynep Kahraman, TSP team


This chart presents the decomposition of CO2co2 emissions into four driving factors following the Kaya identity, which is generally presented in the form:

C = P*(Y/P)*(E/Y)*(C/E)


C = CO2co2 emissions; 
P = population
E = primary energy consumption

The identity expresses, for a given time, CO2co2 emissions per capita, economic output per person, energy intensity of the economy and carbon intensity of the energy.

The Kaya identity can be used to discuss the primary driving forces of CO2co2 emissions. For example, it shows that, globally, increasing economic output per capita and population have been driving CO2co2 emissions upwards, decreasing energy intensity has the inverse effect. 


Data Source:

Historical Energy Consumption statistics:

US EIA Historical Statistics for 1980-2013

 U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, Go to EIA database data accessed 5th of August 2014.

Population (millions)

United Nations Statistics Division for 1980-2013

United Nations Statistics Division, Go to UNdata database, data accessed 7th July 2013.

 GDP by Type of Expenditure at constant (2005) prices and GDP by Purchasing Power Parities at constant (2005) prices:  

- World Development Indicators for 1980-2013

World Bank, World Development Indicators,Go to World Bank database, data accessed May 2014.

Context and definitions

Total primary energy consumption reported in this table includes the consumption of petroleum, dry natural gas, coal, and net nuclear, hydroelectric, and non-hydroelectric renewable electricity. Total primary energy consumption for each country also includes net electricity imports (electricity imports minus electricity exports).

Individual energy intensities are calculated by dividing the primary energy consumption in Mtoe (TSP calculation see: Primary Energy Consumption Statistics)  for each country and year by the gross domestic market exchange rates in billions of (2005) U.S. dollars and purchasing power parities in billions of (2005) U.S. dollarsfor each available country and year from United Nations Statistics Division.



See also with same dataset

Compare the ranking of top 20 countries based on their CO2 emissions
Visualize the evolution of how much carbon emitted for every dollar of GDP
Ranking of countries by how much CO2co2 emitted by each person per year

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From a given scenario, compare different methods to extrapolate it.