Oil Production Extrapolation - Analysis by URR


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Bastien Praz, TSP team

About ...Oil Production Extrapolation Analysis

Bastien Praz, TSP team

Story:

The future of oil production is subject to many analyses and scenario publications. The different types of oil, the different categories in the resource assessments and the economic drivers to future production often lead to experts’ debate. One thing is certain, if we assume a given conventional oil stock, the range of possible curves corresponding to the annual production of this stock lies in a certain domain. The 3 datasets called “Oil Production Extrapolation” are made to explore these possibilities, always drawing curves according to the area under it.

This section presents a graphic module for conventional oil production until 2250. From the script you can select a scenario (or just extend historical data), the type of extrapolation and choose the Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR) you want to assign. Thus you can design your own future picture of conventional oil production from the scenario you want. Three available modes are enable to perform different kinds of analysis: compare scenarios, compare the types of extrapolation or compare different forecasts with respect to conventional oil resources (URR).

The proposed tool has indeed a special feature, i.e. it respects the Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR) selected by the user. This is mainly to highlight the existing physical limits. Therefore the URR are visible directly on the graph since they represent the area under a given curve. Through this module, the user is able to see and find out through different ways what is implied by a given oil production scenario. This might reveal some inconsistencies in these scenarios which trends can be designed with little consideration of the resources’ limitations.

Therefore I would like to highlight that this tool is dedicated to be pedagogical. I do not pretend to model the future oil production precisely.

Data Source:

Please, download the following PDF file to get more information about the methodology used.

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